Another excellent day in King County and Washington. The curve continues to bend, slowly… One thing I’d note is that I’m reporting all numbers on a daily basis as REPORTED by KC. I’ve noted their curves sometimes backdate numbers to the date they OCCURRED, which is reasonable but I have no way of doing that based on the data they share. It may, however, mean my numbers are “lagging”, as if they get a batch of tests today of cases from the last week, they’ll all get loaded into today. This would mean that the data I’m showing is PESSIMISTIC, so it’s likely better than the charts show.
Generally, all trends are holding – we’re seeing flat-to-fewer new cases, and deaths are neither growing very slowly or perhaps they’ve leveled off – too few deaths to tell for sure. This is obviously STARKLY different from some other states that are on clear, rapid, exponential curves in all areas. Apparently (a) we’re distancing and (b) it’s true that if you hide in your house and never encounter others you can’t get an illness from them.
Over the weekend I’ll consider doing a look at the US as a whole, and some hotspots so we can see what we could look like if we weren’t doing so well here.
I’m adding a last chart from the UW modeling; they continuously update the latest trend from our actual data; we are now down to only 9 intensive care beds short at the peak! This was 30 beds just a few days ago, and over a hundred a while back. We are on track to NOT run out of resources at peak according to this model.