Want to see a tragedy in the making? If my charts have shown anything, states should pay attention to and fear *a high growth rate*, even if the number of cases is low (and that ignores that many states have performed very few tests). This chart is the 50 states ordered by the rate of case growth today. The Yellow states have Republican governors who are still following the Trump guidance from a few days ago and haven’t issued stay in place orders.
The final column – a simple-minded projection two weeks out if growth rates stayed the same (they won’t). This shows how out of control several of these states will be in just a few weeks if they don’t get really serious about fighting the virus. Texas, South Carolina, Missouri, and Alabama get really bad really fast. And of course, the relentless math turns all into tragedies in a month – tragedies that will delay us ALL getting out of lockdown since they’ll be sources of infection for other states.
Oh, at some point they’ll have to lockdown. But the later they do, the longer we’ll all be stuck in our houses, the longer the economy will be damaged, the more annoyed my kids will become with me.
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